WTI Crude Oil – Breakout is Imminent at Critical Resistance

WTI Crude Oil - Breakout is Imminent at Critical Resistance

WTI Crude Oil price started the week with a sharp rally from 102.60 to 105. This rally broke above a period of consolidation/correction from the 140.51 high. This rally also surpassed May’s high, and in the 4H chart signals bullish continuation.

WTI Crude Oil 4H Chart
WTI oil 6/11 4H chart

Even though the bullish outlook is picking up in the 4H chart, WTI Crude has a key resistance at the 105-105.22 area. The daily chart shows that this is the 2014-high and provided resistance a couple of times already.

The daily chart shows a market that was bullish in January and February, but has been consolidating under the 105-105.22 area since. The price action is starting to show bullish bias as price is starting to hold above the 200-,100-, and 50-day simple moving averages.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart
oil 6/11 daily chart

Also note in the daily chart, that the RSI has held above 40 throughout the year after tagging 70 in February and March. According to Andrew Cardwell, the RSI guru, this dynamic reflects maintenance of the bullish momentum.

The signs are pointing to an eventual break above 105.22. If this does occur, there are probably a lot of stops above, which can make way for a very sharp breakout extension.

Above 105.22, the next common resistance can be found in the 108.90-109 area. The 2013-high was a spike to 112.22, but we should probably limit any breakout bullish outlook to 110 because there is no strong bullish trend to indicate further upside above the 2013-high.

Bearish Scenario:
At this point, if price fails to breakout above 105.22 and falls below 104, the bullish continuation threat might be shelved for the near-term. Below 102, the focus is back to the 100 handle and the projected ascending triangle support.

However, only a break below the 100 handle, which would clear below the ascending triangle, would open up a bearish outlook, which first has the 97.00 handle, and triangle low in sight.

To contact the reporter of this story, email Fan Yang at fan@forexminute.com
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Fan Yang has been a professional forex trader and analyst since 2007. He specializes in technical analysis and has a Chartered Market Technician designation since 2011. He was the chief technical strategist at CMSFX He was also the founder and chief currency strategist at FXTimes Over the years, Fan has not only been a trader and analyst but also an educator. As a proponent of both technical and fundamental analysis in trading, Fan advocates simplicity and discipline as key factors in making trading decisions when faced with so many "clues" and "signals". Currently Fan Yang is the chief currency analyst and webinar instructor at forexminute.com.