USDJPY Forex Forecast – Long-Term Downtrend Signal

Daily FX Trading Update: US NFP Coming Up - Oct 2, 2015
USDJPY could be in for a long-term selloff, as the pair has formed a complex head and shoulders pattern on its daily time frame. Price is still hovering around the neckline around 117.50-118.00, with a downside break likely to confirm that further losses are likely.
If that happens, USDJPY could fall by an additional 800 pips, which is the same height as the chart formation. This could take it down to the 110.00 levels or much lower, although near-term support areas could trigger profit-taking activity.
The 100 SMA just crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, stochastic is already in the oversold zone, which means that sellers are exhausted and might allow buyers to take over. If so, a bounce back to the nearby resistance at 120.00-121.00 is possible.

USDJPY Fundamental Factors

Earlier today, Japan printed a couple of weaker than expected economic reports. Core machinery orders fell by 14.4% while the Japanese PPI indicated a 3.4% decline in producer price levels, hinting that weaker price pressures are to be expected.
Coming up, Japan is set to print its preliminary machine tool orders report. Another downbeat result could still keep the yen supported, as risk sentiment appears to be driving its price action.
As for the US initial jobless claims and a speech by FOMC member Bullard are lined up today. Tomorrow, retail sales, PPI, and consumer sentiment data are due. Strong data could renew support for the dollar but another round of cautious remarks from a Fed official could dampen March rate hike hopes and keep the currency’s gains limited.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at


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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.