Technical Analysis 6/17


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Technical Analysis 6/17

In today’s Forex Video Briefing, I will be looking at the technical developments in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and Gold (XAU_USD)

EUR/USD started this week holding the 1.3513 level as support and pushing above the 1.3575 resistance. The initiated a bullish signal off a price bottom, but it is too early to tell. The hold above 1.3550 is a good sign, but if price does push higher, let’s say to 1.36 and doesn’t blast through, look for the resistance and the RSI to hold below 60. In that scenario, another bearish attempt is in the books, and the 1.3476 low on the year up to the 1.35 handle will remain the focus in the short term. Note that price is currently being suppressed by the 50-4H SMA (which is the 200 hour SMA) and a falling trendline. A push below 1.3550 would signal bearish continuation.
GBP/USD is simple. It is bullish, but consolidating just under the 1.70 handle, which was cracked on Monday. Price action bounced off 1.6940 and looks poised to retest the 1.7010 high. A break above 1.7010 continues the bullish outlook to the 2009 high at 1.7040. However a break below 1.6935 could open up a bearish correction scenario toward the 1.6820-40 area.

NZD/USD is consolidating after a bullish month so far. It is ranging between 0.8645 and 0.87. A break above 0.87 exposes the 0.8779 high on the year. A break below 0.8640 first exposes the June trendline. A break below the trendline would open up the 0.8554 pivot. It would also suggest that NZD/USD is neutral and not reviving the bullish mode it had in Q1 2014.

Gold (XAU/USD) could be turning bearish again. It started this week coming off the high ground 1285. Today, it broke below the rising June trendline. This shows respect to the previous triangle consolidation area. A break above 1300 would have revived the bullish outlook. However price is now focused back toward the 1240 low. At the moment, price is reacting to 1260, which is support/resistance pivot area. If here is a rally, look for traders to fade back toward the 1240 lows.