Potential Forex Reversal on USDCAD – August 27, 2014

Potential Forex Reversal on USDCAD - August 27, 2014

Potential Forex Reversal on USDCAD - August 27, 2014USDCAD seems to be exhausted from its recent climb, as a forex reversal chart pattern can be seen on its 4-hour time frame. The pair is forming a double top after failing to break past the 1.1000 major psychological level in a couple of attempts. Price has yet to drop to the neckline at 1.0850 before completing the forex reversal pattern.

If USDCAD is able to break below the forex reversal formation’s neckline, it would confirm that a reversal is in play. This could lead to losses of as much as 150 pips for the pair, which is around the same height as the chart pattern.

Forex Reversal Setup

If you’re strongly bearish on this pair, you could hop in at market and aim for the neckline support first. If it breaks, you can add to your position then aim for 1.0700 or lower. Trailing your stop can be a good way to minimize exposure and protect profits.

Bear in mind that the US is set to release its preliminary GDP reading later this week and possibly show a downgrade from 4.0% to 3.9%, with retail sales data being lowered. Business investment and net exports could make up for this downgrade and keep the GDP reading steady, but a sharp downgrade could lead to longer-term weakness for the US dollar and a forex reversal for USDCAD.

On the other hand, an upgrade for the US preliminary GDP reading could lead to more gains for USDCAD and invalidate the forex reversal signal. Due today is the crude oil inventories report, which might also have an impact on Loonie movement. Rising stockpiles could be negative for crude oil prices, which might drag the correlated Canadian dollar lower. Conversely, falling stock piles could push oil prices higher and lead to gains for the Canadian currency.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.