EURUSD has been moving inside a symmetrical triangle pattern since the start of the month, creating higher lows and lower highs. The pair just came off a test of triangle resistance and may be due south, possibly until the triangle support or lower.
Stochastic confirms the potential selloff, as the oscillator is making its way down to the oversold level. MACD is on middle ground but may also be starting head lower and reflect a pickup in bearish momentum.
However, the SMAs look ready to make a crossover, with the 100 simple moving average moving closer to the 200 SMA. This could be a sign that the pair is ready to head back up, possibly creating a break from the top of the triangle.
A breakout in either direction could last by as much as 200 pips, which is the same height as the chart pattern. Going long above 1.2500 and aiming for 1.2700 with a 100-pip stop could yield a 2:1 return on risk while shorting below 1.2400 with a 100-pip stop and a target of 1.2200 could also have the same reward ratio.
The path of least resistance, in terms of fundamental biases, is to the downside. After all, the ECB just eased monetary policy while the Fed is moving towards hiking interest rates sometime next year. Risk sentiment also favors the safe-haven dollar for now, as geopolitical tension is bringing uncertainty back to the table.
Event risks for this EURUSD trade today include the release of GDP readings from the top euro zone economies, namely France and Germany. Weak figures could confirm the chance of a euro zone recession, which could drive EURUSD much lower. In the US, retail sales and consumer sentiment data are due. Stronger than expected data from the US and lower than expected GDP readings from the euro zone could be the catalyst for a downside break.
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