LTCUSD price is still stuck in consolidation on its 4-hour chart, testing support at the symmetrical triangle pattern. A bounce appears to be taking place, possibly taking price up to the triangle resistance near the dynamic inflection point at the 100 SMA.
Speaking of moving averages, the 100 SMA is still below the 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that a bounce off the triangle resistance is possible, likely taking LTCUSD price back down to support.
However, stochastic is on the move up, indicating that there’s enough bullish pressure to possibly lead to an upside break of the triangle. If so, price could head up to the next ceiling at the 200 SMA or 3.200.
RSI, on the other hand, is on middle ground and barely offering any strong clues at the moment. Still, the oscillator appears to be pointing north so LTCUSD price might follow suit.
A breakout in either direction could take price higher or lower by around 0.550 since this is the same height as the triangle formation. A weak rally could simply lead to a test of the triangle highs at 3.450 while a weak selloff could lead to a drop until 2.900 only.
A good catalyst for a breakout move is on today’s docket as Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen has a speech coming up. Any indication that the US central bank can still hike rates in March could trigger strong gains for the dollar, which might lead to a downside break for LTCUSD.
On the other hand, downbeat remarks could keep risk appetite in play as investors price in expectations of low borrowing costs and easy lending conditions. This could spur an upside breakout past the triangle resistance and 200 SMA for LTCUSD price.
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