Forex Video Briefing (9/5) – AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD


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Forex Video Briefing (9/5) – AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD

The AUD/USD daily chart shows a bullish market that might be reviving the uptrend after a month of bearish correction in July, and a month of sideways consolidation in August. Note that price is breaking above the 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages, which revives the bullish bias. The daily RSI reading has also been holding above 60, which is a sign that bullish momentum has been maintained. Furthermore, today’s price action broke above August’s consolidation range, and the next resistance is around d.94, maybe 0.9420, reinforced by a falling trendline from the 0.9505 high on the year. A break above that adds to the bullish continuation scenario, with the 0.9505 high and possibly higher in sight. But first, let’s see what happens around 0.94-0.9420.

Against the Japanese Yen, the Aussie has been rallying sharply since the August low around 94.00. After breaking above the 96.50 multi-month resistance, and the then-2014-high, AUD/JPY has pushed to 98.67. Here, we do see a head and shoulders attempt, with the neckline at 98.24, reinforced by the 50-hour SMA. But even if price does fall below this price top, we need to monitor for buyers at 97.80-90 area which contains support/resistance pivots, and the 100-hour SMA. Below that, there should be buyers in the 97.40-97.50 area, which contain more support/resistance pivots and the 200-hour SMA.

For the AUD/CAD pair, there is already a case for bullish continuation when price broke above a falling channel resistance. Price has stayed above the 200-day SMA and moved above the 100-, and 50-day SMAs. It has been holding below a resistance in the 1.0235 to 1.0250 area, and ends the week threatening this area, and at the cusp of exposing the 1.035 high on the year. The 1H chart shows some resistance at 1.0235, but we also see a bullish sign after a triangle breakout. If price can hold above 1.0170, the outlook should be bullish. A break below 1.0150 however, can put AUD/CAD back to consolidation or even some bearish outlook in the short-term, though the bias in the daily chart would still be bullish until at least a break below 1.00.