Forex Video Briefing (9/10) – AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD
The AUD/USD has clearly broken below 0.92 and thus put in a price top that has been forming since April. The break opens up first the 0.9080-0.9085, 50% retracement level, and also the 0.8980-0.8985, 61.8% retracement level. If price pulls back we should expect resistance around 0.9250. Now when we look at the weekly chart, we can see a bearish previaling trend that held its bearish momentum as evidenced by the RSI holding below 60 after tagging below 30. Thus, the 0.8847, 2013-low, and the 0.8660 2014-low will be viable targets for the rest of the year.
While the AUD/USD is opening up a bearish outlook, AUD/JPY is signaling a pullback after a major bullish breakout. We can see that price broke above a multi-month consolidation which had resistance around 96.50. Now, price has tagged 98.67 and is showing a bearish attempt for the short-term. When price gets back into that 96-96.50 area, we should look for buyers especially if the daily RSI is also around 40. That would be a moment of truth for the bullish outlook. Holding above 96.00 should confirm the bullish outlook at least back towards 98.67. A break below 95.50 however will put price below the 100-, and 50-day SMAs and can pull AUD/JPY back into consolidation mode especially if the daily RSI falls below 40.
The AUD/NZD has also been building a bullish outlook after consolidating for the first half of the year . In July through August, price started to signal a bullish outlook after pushing and staying above the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs, which have shifted into bullish alignment and are spreading apart. The RSI also shows bullish momentum development. This week however, price retreated from last week’s high just under 1.13. We should probably expect some support in the 1.09-1.10 area, which contains a previous consolidation range and the 100-, and 50-day SMAs. If the RSI is back at 40, we should also expect some buyers. If price can then come back above the SMAs, the bullish outlook would still be in play. However, a break below 1.08 would bring AUD/NZD back into a neutral-bearish mode.