Forex Video Briefing (8/11) – AUD/USD, AUD/CAD, AUD/NZD
The 4H AUD/USD chart shows that price has broken below the 200-, 100- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages. Last week, price essentially tested these SMAs, and respected them as resistance, suggesting further downside with a slingshot signal. The RSI has also tagged below 30, then held below 60, showing the AUD/USD is maintaining the bearish momentum in this time-frame. Looking a the daily chart, we see that there is downside risk toward the 0.92-0.9210 area, lows from April-May. In the near-term, if we do have a pullback instead of sliding toward 0.92, we should anticipate sellers around 0.9320, which is the previous support during the June-July price top. There is also a falling trendline that would reinforce the 0.93-0.9320 area as resistance. A break above 0.9380 will be needed to revive a bullish-continuation outlook.
The AUD/CAD pair is coming off a bullish breakout in the daily chart. Price has climbed above a falling channel resistance and the 100- and 50-day SMAs. After last week, price is now testing these SMAs as support. If price can hold above 1.01, the bullish breakout would still be in play. Otherwise, the bullish signal might need to be shelved, as AUD/CAD would probably still be in consolidation in the medium-term, with short-term bearish outlook toward the 1.00 psychological handle. In the 4H chart, you can see that price has essentially broken below a rising trendline from July, and is so far respecting last week’s topping attempt, suggesting at least another short-term bearish attempt. We should see if this bearish attempt will hold above 1.01. If it does, the bullish outlook in the medium term is still viable. Otherwise, we might have to shift the medium-term bullish outlook, to a medium-term neutral outlook, with short-term downside risk.
The AUD/NZD is also at the crossroad. In the daily chart you can see that price has been in a slightly bullish channel in 2014, which reflects consolidation after a bearish trend that extends back to March 2011 when price topped off at 1.3794. In the last couple of weeks, price has been forming a double top after failing to push above 1.1050. You can see this topping attempt occur near the 2014 channel resistance. The 4H chart shows that price is trying to break below this double top, after which we should look for support around 1.0825-30, an area that contains a support/resistance pivot and the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart. In the daily chart, you can also see a cluster of the 200-, 100- and 50-day SMAs around the 1.0825-1.0850 area. If price breaks back above 1.10, whether it had broken below the double top or not, then we should consider a possible bullish continuation. The double top attempt, would simply have been a sideways consolidation.