Forex Video Briefing (6/23) – Japanese Yen Pairs on the Move


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EUR/JPY consolidated and fell last week after failing to break above the 138.90 level. As we begin this week, traders supported EUR/JPY and it is pulling back to test last week’s broken consolidation. Looking at the 1H chart, if price pulls up above 138.70 and the 1H RSI above 60, then the bearish breakout signal is no longer valid. If price holds below 138.70, the breakout is still in play, and last week’s low at 137.70 would be in sight. Also note that around 138.70, price would be also testing a broken trendline support, and if it is treated as resistance, we would have more confirmation for the bearish breakout.

GBP/JPY has been very bullish and pushed to a new high on the month. However it failed to capture 174.00 and is starting the week bearish, turning away from the 2014-high at 174.83. In the short-term, watch out for support in the 172.75-173 area. The GBP/JPY remains bullish with focus toward that high on the year if price can hold above this area. A break below 172.70 can open up some bearish correction, but I would limit that bearish outlook to 172 because the prevailing trend is still intact.

AUD/JPY has been bullish since the May low at 93.04. The 4H RSI has tagged 70 and held above 40 for the most part which reflects persistant bullish momentum. Price broke to a new high on the month to start the week, but is immediately pulling back. If this market is to remain bullish, price should probably find support in the 95.80-96 area. However, if there is a break below 95.60, we are likely in a bearish correction, with 95.20 as a possible near-term support. Otherwise, the pair looks poised to continue higher and challenge the 2014-high at 96.50.