[videojs mp4=”http://s3.amazonaws.com/fxcom-amazon-s3/2014/09/ContinuesDowntrendsafterNFP1.mp4″]
Forex Video Briefing (10/3) – AUD/USD and NZD/USD after the NFP
AUD/USD rallied from a low of 0.8663 earlier in the week to 0.8826 before retreating. This was a brief consolidation, but if price held above 0.8750, the market would have seen a price bottom confirmed with bullish correction scenario in play. However the strong US jobs data pulled the AUD/USD down. Note that price barely breached the 50-period SMA, and the 4H RSI held above 60, showing maintenance of the bearish bias and momentum. At this point, if the AUD/USD is indeed continuing the downtrend, the support/resistance pivot around 0.8750 should see sellers. Also, note that AUD/USD is breaking into fresh lows on the year, and is now exposing the 2010-low at 0.8066 as a target perhaps not in the short-term, but possibly in 2015.
The NZD/USD also had a brief consolidation this week, rallying from 0.7707 to 0.7926. Note that price held below the 50-period SMA, and the RSI held below 60. Also price is breaking below this week’s rising speedline, signaling bearish continuation. NZD/USD is poised to test the 0.7707 low. Also if there is a bounce, a bearish market should find sellers in the 0.7850 support/resistance pivot area. A break below 0.77 first tests the 2013-lows just above 0.7680. If that is broken, we have some common lows from late 2011, and mid-2012 in the 0.7455-0.7460 area. This is a bearish target not for the short-term, but perhaps for 2015.
