Forex Trading Review and Fundamental Analysis – May 12, 2014

Forex Trading Review and Fundamental Analysis - May 12, 2014

The US dollar had a mixed forex trading review before the week came to a close, as most traders booked profits off their dollar longs ahead of the key events this week. JOLTS job openings data was weaker than expected at 4.01M versus the estimated 4.21M reading and the previous 4.13M reading. Wholesale inventories was also worse than expected with a 1.1% increase versus the projected 0.5% uptick, indicating that stockpiles are higher and that there is a slack in purchases. Only a speech by Fed member Plosser is lined up for today, along with the release of the Federal budget balance.

The comdolls edged slightly lower on Friday, as risk aversion took over the markets. In particular, the Loonie was the biggest loser among the three since Canada printed weak jobs data. Employment change slipped by 28.9K instead of increasing by the estimated 12.8K figure, keeping the jobless rate unchanged at 6.9%. Earlier today, Australia’s NAB business confidence index showed an improvement from 4 to 6, helping keep the Australian dollar afloat.

The euro continued its descent to its major counterparts towards the end of the week, as traders positioned ahead of an ECB rate cut in June. Data from the euro zone was also weaker than expected since Germany reported a smaller than expected trade surplus. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, allowing the euro a bit of a rebound in the past few trading hours.


Fundamentals Forex Trading Review

In this forex trading review, pound erased most of its recent gains despite stronger than expected manufacturing production and trade balance data. UK manufacturing production saw a 0.5% uptick, stronger than the estimated 0.3% gain but weaker compared to the previous 1.0% increase. The trade deficit shrank from 8.7 billion GBP to 8.5 billion GBP, reflecting an improvement in exports. Only the BRC retail sales monitor is due today and it might not have such a huge impact on pound direction.

The franc gave up most of its recent winnings in this forex trading review as the US dollar took the limelight last Friday. There were no reports released from Switzerland then, leaving the franc at the mercy of risk sentiment. Swiss retail sales released today showed significantly strong results, with consumer spending up by 3.0% on an annual basis for April and the previous figure revised up from 1.0% to 1.2%.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.