Forex Trading Fundamental Analysis – May 13, 2014

Forex Trading Fundamental Analysis - May 13, 2014

The US dollar had a mixed performance in the latest US forex trading hours, as it consolidated to the euro and Canadian dollar but managed to extend its wins to the yen and the franc. There were no major reports released from the US economy, although the Federal budget balance showed a weaker than expected result. US headline and core retail sales data are up for release today and a weaker increase compared to the previous month’s data are expected. Headline retail sales might tick up by 0.5% while core retail sales could show a 0.6% gain.

The comdolls managed to hold steady in recent forex trading sessions, thanks to the lack of market updates. NAB business confidence in Australia had a small improvement from 4 to 6 but the Aussie’s gains were erased today when both HPI and home loans data showed weaker than expected results. Coming up is New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales data, which might show a 0.9% uptick for both the headline and core figures.  Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales are also lined up for today. Another round of weak data could trigger risk aversion and be negative for higher-yielding commodity currencies.


Forex Trading Fundamentals

The euro consolidated to the dollar and pulled up a bit to the Japanese yen as traders tried to evaluate their bias for the euro prior to the top-tier data this week. There were no reports released from the region yesterday and only the German ZEW economic sentiment figure is due today. The index could dip from 43.2 to 41.3, reflecting more pessimism in the country.

The pound edged lower to the dollar in recent forex trading but recovered to the Japanese yen. The BRC retail sales monitor showed a 4.2% rebound from the previous 1.7% decline, just enough to support the pound against most of its other forex counterparts. There are no major reports lined up from the UK today so it should be all about positioning ahead of tomorrow’s UK claimant count change release and BOE inflation report.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at


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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.