Monday’s data schedule is relatively sparse with the majority of European markets closed for Easter Monday, but a couple of releases out of the US and Australia could move markets on low volume. Here’s what you need to know.
US CB Leading Index MoM
Mid US morning session, The Conference Board is set to report its monthly leading index figure. The figure is a composite based on 10 of the most relevant economic indicators, including employment, output and consumption, and traders and investors use the data to gain insight into future economic conditions.
Consensus forecasts this month’s figure at 0.7%, a small increase over the previous release of 0.5%, which suggests medium term expansion in the US. Investors are watching US data closely at the moment, trying to gauge the likelihood of a near time rate hike, so a reading that is higher than 0.7% will likely strengthen the USD versus its major counterparts, with the reverse being true for a figure below 0.7%.
Keep in mind that the majority of the indicators that go into the leading index figure have already been released, so generally the impact of the data is somewhat muted. However, in a market environment such as today’s, with low volume and liquidity, the figure may have more of an impact than is historically the case.
Australian CB Leading Index MoM
The only other market mover for the day is the Australian equivalent of the release described above. The concept of the release is the same, however the Australian CB leading index only uses seven economic indicators in its composition, and there is generally no forecast made as to its likely outcome. For the latter of these two reasons, traders look to the previous release as an indication of market impact. Growing concern in Australia over employment conditions (especially in the mining sector) means that the release has the potential to affect the value of the AUD. The previous figure was 0.2%, so look for a release above 0.2% to strengthen the AUD versus its major counterparts, with the reverse being true for a release below 0.2%.
To contact the reporter of this story: Samuel Rae at Samuel@forexminute.com