Forex Market Weekly Forecast (Jan 5-9, 2015)

Forex Market Weekly Forecast (Jan 5-9, 2015)

The US dollar was able to end the year strong when risk aversion and falling commodity prices weighed on higher-yielding currencies in the forex market. Apart from that, the upgrade in US GDP was more than enough to sustain the Greenback’s rallies as traders continued to price in a rate hike for this year. For this week, the FOMC minutes and the non-farm payrolls report are the main event risks for the dollar. Hawkish remarks from Fed head Yellen and her group of policymakers could sustain the currency’s gains and another set of strong labor data could also boost the dollar.

The euro was notably weaker in the forex market towards the end of the year as the Greek political troubles stole the spotlight. With the current coalition government unable to gain enough support, snap elections will be held later this month and possibly determine whether or not the debt-ridden nation can secure another set of bailout funds. If they are unable to do so, debt troubles could once again weigh on the shared currency in the longer run. For this week, euro zone inflation readings are the main events on tap.

Forex Market Outlook

The pound gave up forex market ground to the dollar as traders dwelled on the fact that the BOE is less likely to tighten monetary policy this year. The BOE is set to make another policy announcement this week but the pound could barely react as traders would rather see the minutes of their meeting. Also up for release this week are the construction and services PMIs from the United Kingdom.

The franc is still being weighed down by the SNB’s recent announcement of negative deposit rates. With this, the central bank will now charge commercial banks for parking cash in their vaults, thereby encouraging more lending activity. This could boost spending and inflation while keeping the franc weak, helping the SNB maintain its currency peg. There are no main reports due from Switzerland today.

Even though Japan released another set of bleak economic data in the past weeks, the Japanese yen continues to stay supported by risk aversion in the forex market . For now, BOJ Governor Kuroda and the Japanese government have refrained from taking additional steps to boost growth. However, speculations of further easing or hints of more asset purchases could bring yen weakness back to the table.

The comdolls continued to slide at the end of 2014 as falling oil prices were the dominant theme for their forex market price action. So far, the OPEC hasn’t announced any cuts in production yet, which means that the oversupply could continue to keep a lid on price rallies. The dairy auction is set for New Zealand this week and more declines in prices could mean more Kiwi weakness. Also due this week are the Canadian Ivey PMI and Chinese CPI readings.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at