EUR/USD edged lower this week slowly extending a bearish swing that started from the high on the year, 1.3993.
This week,eur-usd price fell below the 200-day simple moving average, to a low of 1.3586. As we get into the Friday US session, traders are trying to defend the 1.36 level, and the EUR/USD crept back above 1.36.
Note that the 1.3650 level is where the 200-day SMA resides. If this level acts as resistance, the trend remains clearly bearish in the short-term, and the 2014-low at 1.3475-80 will still be in the scope.
The daily RSI is near oversold levels, and the 4H RSI is in an extended bullish divergence, a showing that the bearish swing has slowed down, though still intact.
If we see a push above 1.3650, we should anticipate at least some further short-term bullish correction, especially if a subsequent bearish attempt fails to return south of 1.36.
This bullish correction outlook should have a maximum expectation to 1.3775. This is a key support/resistance pivot, and where the 50-day SMA resides. A break above 1.38 might bring back the bullish outlook.
Otherwise, if the bullish correction fizzles below 1.3775, the market remains sideways-bearish, with the 2014-low in sight.
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Earlier: Canadian GDP Data and the USD/CAD Reaction