EURUSD has been forming higher lows on its daily time frame but gains are kept in check by the resistance at 1.1350 to 1.1400. This created an ascending triangle pattern on the longer-term chart, with the pair gearing up to make another test of the triangle support, which is around the 1.1000 handle this time.
The short-term 100 SMA is treading below the long-term 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside. At the same time, stochastic is also on its way down, reflecting a buildup in selling pressure. RSI is also moving lower, confirming that sellers are in control.
However, a breakout past the resistance could mean that further gains are likely for EURUSD. The chart pattern is approximately 800 pips tall so the resulting rally could last by the same amount. Similarly, a downside break could lead to an 800-pip selloff.
EURUSD Fundamental Factors
The main market-mover for this pair could be the Greek debt talks, which haven’t borne much fruit lately. Last week, the IMF team walked out of the negotiations as the Greek government refused to compromise. Over the weekend, the talks ended abruptly as neither side still refrained from budging. Another set of meetings are lined up for Thursday and any updates could determine where EURUSD might be headed.
Another potential market-mover for this setup is the FOMC statement, during which the Fed might confirm that they are moving closer to hiking interest rates. Hawkish remarks would remind traders that tightening might take place in September, which would support the US dollar and push EURUSD much lower.
On the other hand, if Yellen decides to downplay the recent developments in the US economy and caution that a September rate hike isn’t guaranteed yet, the dollar might still end up on the losing end.
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