The EUR shrugged off poor German retail sales data but stalled after soft inflation data. The Flash Estimate for June inflation came in an an annual rate of 0.5%. This is the level Draghi said would be this year’s bottom. So far, we have not seen a real rebound, but it did remain at 0.5%, which was the lowest since Nov. 2009.
As we get into the 6/30 US session, the EUR is still resilient and traders seem to be trying to shrug off the soft inflation data. Let’s take a look at the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/GBP.
EUR/USD stalled at 1.3660 after a rally from 1.3640. The main level to watch out for is 1.3676. A break above this level should open up a bullish outlook, especially if price can hold above 1.36 on a subsequent pullback. A break below 1.3575 however would revive the bearish outlook. The EUR/JPY looks like it is pushing above a consolidation range, but stalled at 1.3850. This pair is bearish, and poised to test the 137.70 June low, with the 2014-low of 136.23 in sight as well. The EUR is most bearish vs. the GBP. It is stalling around the 0.80 mark, which could stick as support in the short-term. However, if this week fails to push above 0.8030, then the 2-week long flag pattern is likely to break and a bearish continuation would be in play.
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