Daily FX Trading Update: Weekend Gaps, Brexit Aftermath

The US dollar drew a lot of support on Friday after the EU referendum results were announced, as the Brexit inspired risk-off moves. Data from the US economy was actually weaker than expected then, with durable goods orders falling short of expectations and the UoM consumer sentiment index suffering a downgrade. The US flash services PMI is due today but traders are likely to be more sensitive to market sentiment.
The euro suffered a sharp decline on Friday as the Brexit would also have negative repercussions on the euro zone economy. The German Ifo business climate index beat expectations by rising to 107.8 to 108.7 instead of dropping to the estimated 107.6 figure. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today but ECB head Draghi has a speech lined up and any hints of additional stimulus would mean more euro weakness.
The pound was the biggest loser on Friday after the Brexit was announced but it managed to recoup some of its losses as profit-taking took place. UK BBA mortgage approvals printed stronger than expected results but traders shrugged this off and focused on post-Brexit updates, such as UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation. Moving forward, the negotiations between the EU and the UK should be under the spotlight and have a strong impact on pound action.
The franc scored plenty of wins against its higher-yielding counterparts but gave most of these up when the SNB intervened in the markets and admitted to doing so. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today but traders might be hesitant to buy up the franc in anticipation of further intervention efforts from the central bank.
The yen was a big winner during the Brexit announcement on Friday but also returned some of its wins when BOJ intervention speculations popped up. Recall that finance officials have been threatening to step in if the yen rallies to sharply and strongly, which was exactly what happened last week. There are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment should stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls chalked up huge losses when risk aversion dawned after the EU referendum results were announced on Friday. Over the weekend, New Zealand printed a stronger than expected trade surplus of 358 million NZD, giving a bit of support for the Kiwi, while the Aussie is getting a boost from stronger gold prices. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.