Daily FX Trading Update: USD Sold off Sharply on Dudley Comments, Oil Rally – Feb 4, 2016

Daily FX Trading Update: USD Sold off Sharply on Dudley Comments, Oil Rally - Feb 4, 2016
The US dollar suffered a sharp selloff during the New York session as data came in mixed and Fed official Dudley said that the currency’s appreciation might be damaging to the economy. The ADP non-farm employment change report indicated a larger than expected gain of 205K versus the projected 193K gain while the previous reading was upgraded from 257K to 267K. However, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell from 55.3 to 53.5, worse than the estimated dip to 55.1, and most of the components reflected declines.
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but was still lower against its higher-yielding counterparts. Some of the euro zone services PMI readings from top economies saw downgrades and the region’s retail sales figure came in short of expectations with a meager 0.3% gain. There are no major reports due from the region today but ECB head Draghi has a testimony lined up.
The pound could be in for a lot of volatility with the BOE statement coming up. Along with this is the release of the BOE Inflation Report, which contains their revised forecasts for growth and inflation, and the MPC minutes which would show the policymakers’ biases. Dovish remarks echoing Carney’s previous downbeat statements could mean more losses for the UK currency.
The franc advanced to the dollar but consolidated against most of its other currency peers.There were no reports out of Switzerland then and today has the SECO consumer climate index lined up. The reading is expected to improve from -18 to -15, indicating a lower level of pessimism.
The yen gave up some of its recent gains when risk appetite picked up and traders moved out of their long dollar holdings onto yen positions. There were no reports out of Japan then and there were no surprises from Kuroda’s testimony. There are still no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls enjoyed a strong rally in recent sessions when oil prices bounced on speculations of an OPEC meeting. Reports showed that six nations are urging for a special meeting this month to discuss production cuts, which might then keep prices supported. US crude oil inventories rose by 7.8 million barrels versus the projected 3.7 million gain. Earlier today, Australia’s NAB business climate index rose from 1 to 4. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.