Daily FX Trading Update: USD Retreats on Disappointing NFP Reading

The US dollar gave back some of its recent gains when the NFP reading missed expectations. The actual figure landed at 156K versus the 171K consensus but the previous reading was upgraded from 151K to 167K. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% as expected, higher than the earlier 0.1% uptick, but the jobless rate rose from 4.9% to 5.0%. US banks are closed for Columbus Day today.
The euro was able to hold its ground after medium-tier reports from the region printed stronger than expected results. German industrial production rose 2.5% versus the projected 1.1% increase while French industrial production also beat expectations. German trade balance, Italian industrial production, and euro zone Sentix investor confidence are lined up for today.
The pound was still in a weak spot on Friday when UK manufacturing and industrial production fell short of expectations. Manufacturing production showed a 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.4% gain while industrial production fell 0.4% instead of showing the projected 0.1% increase. The UK BRC retail sales monitor is due today.
The franc took advantage of dollar and pound weakness but was mostly weaker to the euro and yen. Swiss foreign currency reserves showed only a small increase from 627B CHF to 628B CHF, suggesting that the central bank hasn’t been intervening. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and no change from the earlier 3.4% figure is eyed.
The yen regained a bit of ground on Friday after the US NFP fell short of estimates. Data from Japan, namely average cash earnings and leading indicators, were short of estimates as well so risk aversion likely supported the lower-yielding currency. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness to recover from their recent slide. Canada’s jobs figure beat expectations with a 67.2K gain versus the estimated 8.5K increase and the earlier 26.2K gain. Canada’s Ivey PMI also beat expectations by rising from 52.3 to 58.4. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.