Daily FX Trading Update: US Retail Sales Data Fall Short – Feb 13, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: US Retail Sales Data Fall Short - Feb 13, 2015

The US dollar gave up a lot of FX trading ground when the economy saw weaker than expected retail sales figures for January, casting doubts on the Fed’s projected rate hike for the year. Core retail sales fell by 0.9% versus the projected 0.4% drop while headline retail sales marked a 0.8% decline instead of the estimated 0.4% tumble. Initial jobless claims was also worse than expected at 304K, higher than the estimated 282K figure. US preliminary consumer sentiment data is up for release today.

The euro managed to take advantage of dollar weakness in recent FX trading even though data from the region missed expectations. The German final CPI reading was downgraded from -1.0% to -1.1% while euro zone industrial production stayed flat instead of posting the estimated 0.3% uptick.

FX Trading News

The pound was one of the big winners in yesterday’s FX trading sessions as the BOE Inflation Report hearings contained hawkish remarks. Although the central bank admitted that the UK could see negative inflation in a few months and indicated that they’re open to cutting rates if needed, Carney also clarified that lower price levels have been supporting the already robust domestic growth. He added that their next likely move will still be a rate hike, as he also upgraded growth figures for the next two years.

The franc showed a bit of FX trading volatility but was still moving slowly against the dollar and the rest of its forex rivals in recent trading, thanks to the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. Swiss PPI is due today and a 0.6% decline is eyed to follow the previous 0.4% drop in producer prices.

The yen was also hit by the wave of risk appetite in the financial markets, as the currency returned some of its recent gains to its FX trading counterparts. It managed to advance against the US dollar though, as Japan printed a few strong figures. Core machinery orders marked a higher than expected 8.3% increase versus the projected 2.4% gain while preliminary machine tool orders also saw a strong 20.4% increase. No other reports are due from Japan today.

The Aussie managed to recover from its selloff after the weak jobs report release, as the currency took advantage of the return in risk appetite. The economy actually lost 12.2K jobs in January versus the projected 4.7K drop, bringing the jobless rate to 6.4%. Canadian manufacturing sales data is due today and a 0.8% rebound is expected.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.