Daily FX Trading Update: US Q2 GDP Disappoints

The US dollar gave up a lot of ground on Friday when its Q2 advanced GDP reading came in far below expectations. The report showed that the US economy grew by only 1.2% versus the projected 2.6% expansion, just slightly higher than the earlier 1.1% GDP figure. This doused hopes for a September Fed rate hike, causing the dollar to retreat. US ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a dip from 53.2 to 53.1 is expected.
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but gave up ground to the Japanese yen. Data from the euro zone came in mixed, as the Spanish flash CPI, French consumer spending, and French preliminary CPI missed expectations while German retail sales and euro zone flash core CPI beat expectations. The headline CPI reading for the region was better than expected at 0.2%. Final manufacturing PMI readings from the top euro zone economies are due today.
The pound advanced to the dollar but caved to the comdolls despite better than expected medium-tier reports from the UK. For today, the manufacturing PMI is up for release and no revisions to the initially reported 49.1 reading is expected.
The franc gained a lot of ground to the dollar and its European counterparts when risk aversion returned on Friday. Data from Switzerland was also better than expected as the KOF economic barometer rose from 102.6 to 102.7 instead of falling to 101.6. Swiss banks are closed for the holiday today.
The yen continued to rake in gains, thanks to risk aversion and a smaller than expected easing expansion from the BOJ. The central bank merely increased its ETF purchases instead of lowering rates further and pumping up their JGB buying operations. Earlier today, Japan’s final manufacturing PMI was upgraded from 49.0 to 49.3 to show a slower pace of industry contraction.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the declines in the dollar and managed to advance against the European currencies as well. Data from Canada was weaker than expected, as the economy contracted 0.6% versus the projected 0.5% drop in GDP for May. Underlying inflation data also missed expectations. Earlier today, China reported a fall in its official manufacturing PMI from 50.0 to 49.9 and an increase in its non-manufacturing PMI from 53.7 to 53.9.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.