Daily FX Trading Update: US July NFP to Support Sept Fed Rate Hike? – Aug 10, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: US July NFP to Support Sept Fed Rate Hike? - Aug 10, 2015

The US dollar had a volatile trading run on Friday, as the NFP report came in slightly weaker than expected. The economy added 215K jobs in July, lower than the projected 225K gain. However, the previous figures enjoyed upgrades amounting to an additional 14K positions. Meanwhile, the jobless rate held steady at 5.3% while the participation rate was unchanged at 62.6%. A few Fed officials are set to give testimonies today and their rhetoric could be interpreted as signals for when the central bank might hike rates.

The euro was mostly weaker last week, thanks to downbeat reports from most of the top economies in the region. German industrial production and trade balance missed expectations while French industrial production came up short as well. Only the euro zone Sentix investor confidence report is due today and a climb from 18.5 to 20.2 is expected.

The pound was in a weak spot last Friday when the UK trade balance missed expectations. The report showed that the deficit widened from a downgraded 8.4 billion GBP to 9.2 billion GBP instead of the projected 9.1 billion GBP shortfall. This cast doubts on the BOE’s hawkishness, especially since the Super Thursday events revealed that most of the policymakers are not too eager to hike rates just yet. There are no reports due from the UK today.

The franc continued to sell off against the US dollar without any major catalysts from Switzerland. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected while the foreign currency reserves report showed an increase from 516 billion CHF to 531.8 billion CHF, suggesting potential intervention. No reports are due from Switzerland today.

The yen had a mixed trading day on Friday as it reacted to currency specific data. The BOJ statement didn’t contain any changes to monetary policy as expected and central bank officials barely provided clues on what they might do next. For today, Japanese current account balance, consumer confidence, and Economy Watchers sentiment data are lined up.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Canadian dollar gave up ground after the release of Canada’s jobs report, even though the actual reading came in slightly better than expected at 6.6K versus 5.3K while the jobless rate was unchanged at 6.8%. The Ivey PMI was also better than expected at 52.9 versus the projected 51.8 figure but was down from the previous 55.9. Over the weekend, China reported a better than expected annual CPI of 1.6% versus the projected 1.5% figure but the PPI fell short of consensus.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.