Daily FX Trading Update: US GDP Upgraded to 1.0% in Q4 – Feb 29, 2016

Daily FX Trading Update: US GDP Upgraded to 1.0% in Q4 - Feb 29, 2016
The US dollar had a strong run on Friday, thanks to an upbeat GDP release. The preliminary reading showed an upward revision from 0.7% to 1.0% instead of being downgraded to 0.4% as expected. Personal spending and income both ticked up by 0.5%. For today, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales reports are due.
The euro broke lower to the dollar but managed to advance against most of its comdoll peers when risk aversion stayed in play. Data from the euro zone was mostly weaker than expected, with German preliminary CPI missing expectations of a 0.6% gain and coming in at 0.4%. Both the French and Spanish preliminary CPI readings also fell short while the French consumer spending report came in line with estimates of a 0.6% increase. German retail sales and euro zone CPI estimates are due today.
The pound resumed its slide as IMF head Lagarde warned of the repercussions of a Brexit. There were no major reports out of the UK on Friday, leaving investors to price in potential financial and economic uncertainty. UK net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals data are due next.
The franc managed to advance against the euro but lost ground to the dollar on Friday. There were no major reports out of Switzerland then while today has the KOF economic barometer on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a dip from 100.3 to 99.1, which might spur franc weakness.
The yen took advantage of the risk-off flows last Friday, although its gains were still limited. Data from Japan came in mixed, with the Tokyo core CPI and BOJ core CPI missing expectations and the national core CPI coming in slightly stronger than expected. Earlier today, Japan printed a 0.1% drop in retail sales and a 3.7% jump in preliminary industrial production.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi and Aussie slumped against their peers when risk aversion kicked in but the Loonie managed to hold on to its wins in anticipation of a deal to cap oil production. New Zealand’s ANZ business confidence index dropped from 23.0 to 7.1 while building consents fell 8.9%. In Australia, company operating profits fell 2.8% versus the projected 1.7% drop. The Canadian current account balance is due next.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.