Daily FX Trading Update: Surprise PBoC Cut Boosted Risk Appetite – Nov. 24, 2014

Daily FX Trading Update: Surprise PBoC Cut Boosted Risk Appetite - Nov. 24, 2014

The US dollar had a mixed performance as it returned some of its FX trading gains to the yen and comdolls while gaining more ground to the European currencies. There have been no reports released from the US economy then, leaving risk sentiment as a major mover of price action. The surprise rate cut by the Chinese central bank did revive risk appetite for a bit as it spelled better global growth prospects. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.

The euro suffered a sharp selloff to its FX trading counterparts on Friday when Draghi spoke of being ready to do whatever it takes to boost inflation. While this is not much of a surprise, knowing that the euro zone is facing potential deflation and a recession, these remarks triggered a huge reaction since the ECB is set to have another policy statement in a couple of weeks. Traders are starting to price in actual quantitative easing or possibly another round of rate cuts from the central bank. Only the German Ifo business climate report is due today and the index is expected to fall from 103.2 to 103.0, with a weaker than expected reading likely to spark another euro selloff.

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The pound also gave up some of its recent FX trading gains, as the public sector net borrowing report came in slightly worse than expected. The deficit came in at 7.1 billion GBP versus the estimated 6.9 billion GBP borrowing figure, although the previous month’s reading was upgraded. There are no reports due from the UK today.

The franc gave up its recent wins to the dollar as traders priced in the potential effect of further ECB easing on the SNB’s policy bias. EURCHF has moved slightly above its tight range as some expected the SNB to announce easing measures or currency intervention in reaction to Draghi’s statement, but so far there has been none. The Swiss employment level report is due today and an improvement from 4.20 million to 4.22 million is eyed.

The yen recovered on Friday, as traders booked profits off key FX trading levels and ahead of today’s Japanese holiday. There were no reports released from Japan then and none are due today, leaving risk sentiment as the main driver of yen price action.

The comdolls gained ground on the PBOC’s surprise rate cut announcement, as many speculated that this could lead to stronger global growth prospects. Data from China has been disappointing recently and economists think that the world’s second largest economy would miss its 7.5% GDP target. Canadian CPI figures have surprised to the upside, lending more FX trading support for the Loonie.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.