Daily FX Trading Update: Risk Aversion Returns on Crude Oil Drop

The US dollar managed to score gains against the comdolls on weaker oil prices and rate cut expectations. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, as the ISM manufacturing PMI slipped from 53.2 to 52.6 versus the projected dip to 53.1. The employment and prices components showed huge declines, suggesting a weaker NFP and lower CPI pressures. US core PCE price index, along with personal spending and income data, are due today.
The euro consolidated to the dollar but advanced to the commodity currencies despite mostly weaker manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies. Only the Spanish unemployment change report is due today and a 70K drop in joblessness is eyed.
The pound was mostly weaker against its counterparts as the manufacturing PMI showed an even sharper contraction. The figure was revised from the initially printed 49.1 reading to 48.2, signaling downside pressure on overall economic activity. Only the UK construction PMI is due today and another downgrade from 46.0 to 44.2 is expected.
The franc continued raking in gains against most of its rivals as risk aversion stayed in play. Swiss banks were closed for a holiday yesterday. The Swiss manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 51.6 to 51.9 is expected. Swiss retail sales are also lined up but a sharper decline of 2.0% is eyed.
The yen held on to its recent gains and even raked in wins against the comdolls. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday and there are none lined up today, which suggests that market sentiment could keep influencing price action of yen pairs.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the weakest of the bunch as crude oil price declines and rate cut expectations weighed on risk sentiment and the higher-yielding currencies. Crude oil came close to the $40/barrel as traders are expecting to see another buildup in stockpiles and higher oil rig counts. Earlier today, trade balance and building approvals for Australia missed expectations, setting the stage for a possibly dovish RBA statement. Analysts are expecting a 0.25% cut but a decision to stand pat could simply increase rate cut expectations for the next statement. New Zealand’s GDT auction is coming up in the next Asian session.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.