Daily FX Trading Update: Risk Aversion or Profit-Taking? – Feb 19, 2016

Daily FX Trading Update: Risk Aversion or Profit-Taking? - Feb 19, 2016
The US dollar took advantage of the return in risk aversion in recent trading sessions, advancing against the commodity currencies. Data from the US economy was mostly stronger than expected, as the Philly Fed index improved from -3.5 to -2.8 while initial jobless claims landed at 262K to show stronger momentum in hiring growth. CPI reports are due today, with the headline figure expected to come in at -0.1% and the core figure projected to show a 0.2% gain.
The euro gave up ground to the dollar and yen but it was able to take advantage of comdoll weakness. The euro zone current account balance came in better than expected at a surplus of 25.5 billion EUR versus the projected 22.3 billion EUR surplus. Only the German PPI report is due today and a 0.3% decline is eyed.
The pound was also in a weak spot against the safe-havens but advanced against commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday while today has the retail sales report due. A 0.8% rebound is expected but weaker than expected results might be possible since wage growth has been subdued.
The franc managed to advance against the euro but weakened to the dollar as risk appetite faded. Data from the Swiss economy was stronger than expected, with the trade surplus expanding from 2.59 billion CHF to 3.51 billion CHF. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
The yen was the big winner in recent trading sessions, thanks to the return in risk aversion. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday while today has the all industries activity index on tap, with a 0.3% decline expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls chalked up losses to the yen and most of their currency counterparts when hopes of an oil production freeze deal fizzled. In addition, crude oil inventories showed another increase in stockpiles of 2.1 million barrels, reminding traders of the supply glut. Wholesale sales data from Canada came in strong with a 2.0% gain and retail sales reports are due today. The headline figure could show a 0.7% drop while the core figure could post a 0.5% decline. Canadian CPI figures are also lined up.




To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.