Daily FX Trading Update: Oil Prices Recover – Sept 3, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: Oil Prices Recover - Sept 3, 2015

The US dollar had a mixed trading day, as data from the economy fell short of expectations. The ADP non-farm employment change report showed a mere 190K gain in hiring versus the projected 224K increase while the previous reading was downgraded from 185K to 177K, suggesting a downside surprise for tomorrow’s NFP release. Revised non-farm productivity and unit labor costs were also weaker than expected. Factory orders posted a 0.4% uptick, half of the projected 0.8% increase. For today, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due and it might show a drop from 60.3 to 58.3.

The euro paused from its recent rallies against its forex rivals, despite stronger than expected jobs data from Spain. The economy reported a 21.7K increase in joblessness, lower than the estimated 35.3K gain. Final services PMI readings are due from the euro zone today ahead of the ECB rate decision later on. No actual policy changes are expected but Draghi’s remarks on inflation might be crucial to euro price action.

The pound was still in a weak spot in recent trading sessions, as the UK construction PMI came in slightly lower than expected. The index climbed from 57.1 to 57.3, lower than the estimated 57.6 figure. For today, the services PMI is due and this could have a stronger impact on pound movement. The index is expected to rise from 57.4 to 57.6, which might allow the UK currency to recover.

The franc gave up more ground to the dollar, despite the lack of data from Switzerland. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today, leaving the franc sensitive to counter currency moves or euro zone data.

The yen held on to its recent wins when risk aversion extended its stay in the markets. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, leaving risk sentiment the main driver of yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Comdolls have been looking mostly weaker, even though the Loonie drew some support from the reduction in US crude oil inventories and speculations that the OPEC is ready to discuss production levels. Earlier today, Australia reported a 0.1% decline in retail sales instead of the projected 0.4% increase and a smaller than expected trade deficit of 2.46 billion AUD. Canada’s trade balance is up for release later on and a wider deficit is eyed.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.