Daily FX Trading Update: Oil Prices Rebound Slightly – Dec 2, 2014

Daily FX Trading Update: Oil Prices Rebound Slightly - Dec 2, 2014

The US dollar returned some of its recent FX trading gains, mostly to the pound and the Japanese yen, even as the ISM manufacturing PMI showed stronger than expected results. The figure fell from 59.0 to 58.7, higher than the estimated drop to 57.9. Remarks from FOMC officials Dudley and Fischer were crucial for dollar movement, as their cautious remarks led to a bit of weakness. For today, there are no top-tier reports lined up, but Yellen and Brainard are set to give testimonies that might once again rock the dollar.

The euro made a bit of a recovery in recent FX trading, as recent PMI figures came in mixed. Spain’s manufacturing PMI climbed from 52.6 to 54.7, outpacing the consensus at 52.9. Italy’s manufacturing PMI held steady at 49.0 instead of improving to the estimated 49.5 reading. The Spanish unemployment change report is up for release today and it could show a smaller increase in joblessness of 21.3K versus the previous 79.2K, which might lead to a bit of euro strength.

FX Trading Fundamentals

The pound made a decent FX trading bounce to the dollar, despite mixed data from the United Kingdom. The manufacturing PMI climbed from 53.3 to 53.5 instead of falling to the projected 53.1 figure, indicating a stronger expansion in the industry. Net lending to individuals and M4 money supply were below expectations though, while the mortgage approvals reading came in line with expectations at 59K. Construction PMI is up for release today and it could show a dip from 61.4 to 61.1.

The franc made a slight recovery to the euro and the dollar after its aggressive selloff after the Swiss referendum over the weekend. Data from Switzerland was weaker than expected, as the SVME PMI fell from 55.3 to 52.1, worse than the projected fall to 52.9. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today.

The yen was a big loser at the earlier FX trading sessions but managed to recover to the dollar during the New York trading hours. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday while today had the average cash earnings report due. This showed a weaker than expected 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.8% increase while the previous reading was downgraded from 0.8% to 0.7%. No other reports are due from Japan today.

The comdolls had a bit of a relief in the latter FX trading sessions, as oil and gold prices made a bit of a rebound. Earlier today, Australia reported an 11.4% gain in building approvals, more than twice as much as the estimated 5.2% increase. The RBA decision is scheduled today and might cause a ruckus among Aussie pairs if the central bank announces major changes. The New Zealand dairy auction is also scheduled today and might have a significant effect on Kiwi movement.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.