Daily FX Trading Update: Markets Waiting for Yellen

The US dollar continued to rake in gains earlier in the day but wound up retreating on profit-taking. Data from the US economy was mostly stronger than expected as the durable goods orders figures saw strong gains while the initial jobless claims figure was slightly lower than consensus. The flash services PMI, on the other hand, turned out to be a disappointment when it showed a slower pace of industry growth. For today, the main event risk is Yellen’s Jackson Hole testimony which might set the tone for Fed rate hike expectations. Apart from that, the US preliminary GDP reading and revised UoM consumer sentiment figures are due.
The euro was mostly weaker against its peers as the death toll from the earthquake in Central Italy continued to rise. Germany’s Ifo business climate index was weaker than expected as it slid from 108.3 to 106.2 instead of improving to 108.5. The GfK consumer climate index is due today and a rise from 10.0 to 10.2 is eyed.
The pound gave up ground despite stronger than expected CBI realized sales data. The reading rose from -14 to +9 to reflect a return to growth, higher than the estimated rise to -5. The UK second GDP estimate is due today and no change from the initially reported 0.6% growth figure is eyed.
The franc failed to establish a strong direction in recent trading as there were no top-tier reports from Switzerland. There are still no major reports lined up today so risk sentiment could push franc pairs around.
Yen pairs were mostly stuck in their tight ranges as traders continued to sit on their hands and wait for more economic clues. Inflation readings from Japan and Tokyo both printed weaker than expected results, reviving talks of additional BOJ easing in their next meeting.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly weaker once more as risk aversion weighed on higher-yielders. There were no reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday and none are due today, although large moves could be seen if risk sentiment is stronger after Yellen’s testimony.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.