Daily FX Trading Update: Heads Up for Yellen’s Speech Today – Mar 27, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: Heads Up for Yellen's Speech Today - Mar 27, 2015

The US dollar made a bit of a recovery to its FX trading counterparts in recent trading, as data from the US economy came in stronger than expected again. Initial jobless claims came in at 282K versus the estimated 291K figure and the previous 291K increase. The flash manufacturing PMI improved from 57.1 to 58.6, outpacing the consensus at 57.2. For today, the final GDP reading for Q1 is up for release and an upgrade from 2.2% to 2.4% is expected. Yellen is also set to give a speech today and probably make an impact on dollar movements.

The euro gave back some of its recent FX trading wins when the region posted a couple of weaker than expected economic readings. M3 money supply came in below expectations while euro zone private loans showed a 0.1% decline instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. However, the German GfK consumer climate report showed a better than expected reading of 10, up from the previous 9.7 report and higher than the projected 9.8 figure. There are no major reports due from the region today.

FX Trading News

The pound failed to rally after the UK printed a couple of stronger than expected spending reports, as trader are starting to doubt the optimism of the BOE when it comes to spending. Retail sales marked a 0.7% gain versus the projected 0.4% increase and the previous 0.1% uptick. The CBI realized sales index jumped from 1 to 18, outpacing the estimate of 16. For today, a few BOE officials are set to give speeches and possibly spur pound volatility.

The franc returned some of its recent FX trading wins even though there were no reports released from Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today, which suggests that the currency could take its cue from risk sentiment or euro direction.

The Japanese yen is edging lower to its FX trading counterparts in today’s Asian session, as data from the economy came in mixed. Retail sales was weaker than expected with a 1.8% annualized decline versus the projected 1.4% drop while household spending marked a 2.9% year-over-year decrease. National core inflation chalked up its seventh consecutive monthly decline, after falling from 2.2% to 2.0% in February. The good news is that unemployment improved from 3.6% to 3.5%. No other reports are lined up from Japan.

The comdolls continued to edge lower in recent FX trading as geopolitical risk weighed on sentiment. The Loonie, however, was able to benefit from the pickup in oil prices due to speculations of a downturn in production with the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.