Daily FX Trading Update: Greece Gets Third Bailout – Aug 21, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: Greece Gets Third Bailout - Aug 21, 2015

The US dollar gave up ground to its forex rivals despite stronger than expected data from the economy. Existing home sales jumped from 5.48M to 5.59M while the Philly Fed index improved from 5.7 to 8.3. Initial jobless claims was worse than expected at 277K versus the projected 272K figure and the previous 273K reading. For today, only the flash manufacturing PMI is lined up and a climb from 53.8 to 53.9 is eyed.

The euro made a strong ascent across the board when Greece finally received its third set of bailout funds and made its loan repayment to the ECB. Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras announced his resignation and called for an early election, which might prompt political trouble in the country and lead to a lack of momentum in implementing economic reforms. For now, the shared currency is still drawing support from the release of the third bailout and might be pushed around by the flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany and France.

The pound was weighed down by weaker than expected UK retail sales, which indicated a mere 0.1% uptick instead of the projected 0.4% increase. On a positive note, the previous reading was revised from -0.2% to -0.1%. Only the public sector net borrowing report is due today and a 2.3 billion GBP surplus is eyed, which might be positive for the pound.

The franc advanced against the dollar after Switzerland printed a better than expected trade balance for July. The surplus widened from 3.51 billion CHF to 3.74 billion CHF, reflecting an improvement in trade activity. No reports are due from Switzerland today but the franc could take its cue from the euro zone data.

The yen was able to advance against most of its counterparts, except for the euro, as risk aversion supported the lower-yielding currency. There have been no reports released from Japan yesterday while today had the flash manufacturing PMI lined up. The report showed a climb from 51.2 to 51.9, slightly lower than the projected 52.1 figure.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were still under selling pressure, despite stronger than expected wholesale sales data from Canada. The report showed a 1.3% gain versus the projected 1.0% rebound, suggesting better than expected retail sales data for today. The headline figure is slated to show a 0.2% uptick while the core figure could show a 0.6% gain. Also due from Canada are its CPI readings.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.