Daily FX Trading Update: Greece Defaults on IMF Loan – July 1, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: Greece Defaults on IMF Loan - July 1, 2015

The US dollar regained a bit of ground on risk aversion after Greece defaulted on its loan to the IMF. Data from the US came in mixed, with the Chicago PMI missing expectations and the CB consumer confidence index printing stronger than expected results. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change report could pose an event risk for dollar trades, with analysts expecting to see stronger hiring gains of 219K compared to the previous 201K.

The euro didn’t sell off as much when Greece officially entered default with the IMF, as traders already priced in this possibility a long while back. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as Germany reported weaker than expected hiring gains of 1K while the region’s flash CPI estimates came in line with expectations. Manufacturing PMIs from the region’s largest economies are lined up today, although updates on the Greek debt crisis could continue to push pairs around.

The pound also suffered a selloff in recent trading, even though there were no major catalysts lined up. Traders are worried that debt contagion could spill over to the UK from Greece, which could be a burden to the country’s finances. The UK manufacturing PMI is up for release today and a climb from 52.0 to 52.6 is expected. BOE Governor Carney is also set to give a testimony and reassuring remarks could help boost the pound.

The franc was mostly flat in recent trading, although it did chalk up some losses after Greece defaulted. The KOF economic barometer was weaker than expected as it fell to 89.7 while the previous reading suffered a downgrade. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due today and a climb from 49.4 to 50.0 is eyed.

Japan printed improvements in its latest Tankan survey, with the manufacturing component climbing from 12 to 15 and the non-manufacturing index improving from 19 to 23. The final manufacturing PMI for June was also upgraded from 49.9 to 50.1, reflecting industry expansion. No other reports are lined up from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to score gains after China reported improvements in its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings. In addition, Australia posted a 2.3% rebound in building approvals. Later on, New Zealand is set to have another dairy auction and a decline in prices might drive the Kiwi lower again.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.