Daily FX Trading Update: FOMC Stands Pat, Bulls Disappointed – Sept 18, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: FOMC Stands Pat, Bulls Disappointed - Sept 18, 2015

The US dollar suffered a sharp selloff after the FOMC statement since the Fed refrained from hiking interest rates. There was only one member who called for a rate hike but he was outvoted by the rest of the committee who pointed out the risks stemming from China. Fed officials upgraded their growth forecast for 2015 but downgraded their estimates for the next two years. Despite that, 13 out of 17 central bankers still believe that a liftoff is possible before the end of the year.

The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness and surge past its other forex counterparts yesterday. There have been no reports out of the region yesterday while today has only the current account balance on tap. The surplus is expected to narrow from 25.4 billion EUR to 21.3 billion EUR.

The pound managed to advance against most of its forex rivals, despite weaker than expected UK retail sales data. Consumer spending ticked up by only 0.2% in August as expected but the previous report was downgraded to show a flat reading. There are no reports due from the UK today but BOE member Haldane is scheduled to give a speech.

The SNB decided to keep monetary policy unchanged as expected while jawboning their currency in saying that they’re open to intervening in the forex market if necessary. SNB officials sounded more dovish than usual, especially since the ECB has also expressed openness to further easing. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today.

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness but was unable to score wins against the rest of its forex peers. Japan’s trade balance showed a smaller deficit of 0.36 trillion JPY from the earlier 0.38 trillion JPY, but the components of the report revealed a decline in both imports and exports, which reflects a downturn in local and international demand. The BOJ meeting minutes are due today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were barely able to sustain their gains against the dollar, as risk aversion seemed to weigh on these higher-yielders. There have been no reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday while today has Canada’s CPI reports on tap. The headline CPI could show a flat reading while the core CPI is slated to post a 0.2% uptick.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.