Daily FX Trading Update: Euro Still Enjoying Post-ECB Rally – Dec. 4, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: Euro Still Enjoying Post-ECB Rally - Dec. 4, 2015
The US dollar had a late rally during the New York trading session as Fed Chairperson Yellen reiterated her hawkish bias. Data from the US economy fell below expectations, as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropped from 59.1 to 55.9 instead of just dipping to 58.1. Still, analysts are expecting to see an upbeat NFP reading due to the pickup in employment indices and the stronger than expected ADP report.
The euro staged a strong climb following the ECB interest rate statement even though the central bank announced additional stimulus measures. Policymakers lowered the deposit rate to -0.30% and announced an extension of their QE program, bringing the total up to 1.5 trillion EUR. Still, market watchers were disappointed that the actual size of monthly purchases were maintained. German factory orders data is due next and a 1.3% rebound is eyed.
The pound also made a strong climb in recent trading sessions, thanks to stronger than expected UK services PMI. Traders had been bracing themselves for another disappointment, as the manufacturing and construction sectors failed to meet expectations. The actual figure rose from 54.9 to 55.9, outpacing the consensus at 55.1. Only the Halifax HPI is due today.
The franc enjoyed a bit of a relief rally when the ECB refrained from easing too much. This lowered the odds of SNB intervention, allowing traders to lighten up on their short franc positions. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and the CPI report is due today, with a flat reading expected.
The yen was all over the place as it mostly reacted to risk sentiment and currency-specific events. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday while today has the average cash earnings index lined up. A pickup in wages of around 0.4% would be in line with expectations, possibly keeping the yen afloat. Japanese consumer confidence data is also up for release.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Comdolls were slightly weaker against the dollar and returned their wins to the European currencies, as Australia printed a downbeat trade balance. The deficit widened to 3.31 billion AUD because of a sharp 3% drop in exports. Retail sales data is up next and a 0.4% uptick is expected. In Canada, the trade balance and jobs figures are up for release.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.