Daily FX Trading Update: ECB Rate Decision Coming Up

The US dollar gave up some ground despite mixed data, as traders focused on the 1.8% slump in construction spending. The Fed’s Beige Book confirmed that most districts saw improvements, underscoring a potentially upbeat FOMC statement later this month. The ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations as it rose from 50.8 to 51.3 instead of falling to 50.5. The ADP non-farm employment change report is due today and a 174K gain in hiring is eyed.
The euro regained ground against some of its rivals, possibly as traders booked profits ahead of the ECB statement. Data from the euro zone was also mostly weaker than expected as some final manufacturing PMI readings were downgraded. The ECB statement is lined up today but no actual policy changes are expected, although dovish remarks could extend the shared currency’s slide.
The pound chalked up yet another losing day as more polls indicated a lead in favor of those voting to exit the EU. Data from the UK was stronger than expected, as the manufacturing PMI rose from 49.4 to 50.1, indicating a return to industry expansion. The construction PMI is due today and a dip from 52.0 to 51.9 is eyed.
The franc was slightly weaker against most of its peers due to lower than expected Swiss retail sales. The report showed a 1.9% year-over-year drop versus the estimated 0.8% slide. There are no reports due from Switzerland today, leaving the franc sensitive to market sentiment and euro zone events.
The yen raked in a lot of gains when PM Abe made the official announcement to delay the sales tax hike. This could keep consumer spending and price levels propped up for a few more years but prevent the government from achieving its fiscal targets sooner. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi was one of the strongest performing currencies lately, thanks to a 3.8% increase in the dairy price index in the latest GDT auction. Earlier on, Australia printed a weaker than expected 0.2% uptick in retail sales but also showed a smaller than expected deficit buoyed by a 1% increase in exports. The OPEC meetings are going on today and any decision (or lack thereof) could have a material impact on Loonie action.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.