Daily FX Trading Update: Dollar Bulls Charge on Strong Data

The US dollar regained ground against its forex rivals in recent trading as data beat expectations. The CB consumer confidence index rose from 96.7 to 101.1 in August to reflect stronger optimism and hint at higher spending down the line. The ADP report is due today and a 174K increase in hiring is expected for August, slower than the earlier 179K gain. Chicago PMI and pending home sales are also up for release.
The euro was weaker against the dollar and comdolls but managed to advance against the yen. Data from the region was mixed, as Germany’s preliminary CPI was flat while Spain reported a smaller than expected 0.1% dip in price levels. German import prices posted a 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.1% drop. German retail sales and unemployment change data are lined up today ahead of the region’s flash CPI readings, with downbeat results likely to revive additional ECB easing expectations.
The pound was able to stay resilient against the dollar, despite weaker than expected UK data. Net lending to individuals fell from 5.1 billion GBP to 3.8 billion GBP while mortgage approvals slid from 64K to 61K. Only the UK Nationwide HPI is up for release today and a 0.1% decline is expected.
The franc lost ground to the dollar and its European counterparts as the KOF economic barometer dropped from 103.5 to 99.8 versus the projected 102.2 reading. For today, the UBS consumption indicator is lined up and a reading below the earlier 1.34 figure could mean more losses.
The yen was the weakest performer in the bunch as traders continued pricing in expectations of aggressive stimulus from the BOJ. Japan’s preliminary industrial production showed a flat reading instead of the estimated 0.7% gain. Housing starts data is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls lost ground to the dollar but managed to advance against the euro and yen. Data from Canada was mixed, but the downbeat current account deficit reflected much weaker export activity and is weighing on monthly GDP expectations for today. Underlying inflation data such as IPPI and RMPI reflected weaker price pressures as well. In New Zealand, the ANZ business confidence index fell from 16.0 to 15.5. Crude oil inventories data is also lined up and a buildup of 1.1 million barrels is eyed, likely weighing on the commodity price once more.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.