Daily FX Trading Update: Chinese Trade Balance, Crude Oil Drop Bring Risk Aversion – Mar 9, 2016

Daily FX Trading Update: Chinese Trade Balance, Crude Oil Drop Bring Risk Aversion - Mar 9, 2016
The US dollar regained ground in yesterday’s trading session when risk aversion returned. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, as the NFIB small business index fell from 93.9 to 92.9 to indicate weakening conditions. Wholesale inventories and crude oil inventories data are due today.
The euro was in a weak spot in recent trading sessions, as traders are probably pricing in additional easing measures from the ECB. Data from the euro zone was mostly in line with expectations, with German industrial production even coming in better than consensus at its 3.3% gain. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.
The pound gave up ground when a UK newspaper confirmed that the Queen is backing a Brexit. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday, although BOE Governor Carney’s speech did lead some analysts to push back rate hike expectations later into 2017. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 0.2% rebound is eyed.
The franc was no match to dollar strength even though data from Switzerland was actually better than expected. The Swiss CPI showed a 0.2% gain in price levels versus the projected 0.1% drop. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
The yen regained ground when traders pared their riskier holdings, even though data from Japan was weaker than expected. The consumer confidence index fell from 42.5 to 40.1 while the Economy Watchers index fell from 46.6 to 44.6. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls retreated upon seeing downbeat trade balance data from China, as this was caused by double-digit declines in both imports and exports. Rising oil stockpiles as reported by the API also weighed on crude oil and the Loonie. The BOC and RBNZ are set to give their monetary policy statements today, with the former expected to give a neutral statement and the latter likely to ease or sound dovish.

To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.