Daily FX Trading Update: Chinese Imports Down 17.7%, UK CPI Coming Up – Oct 13, 2015

Daily FX Trading Update: Chinese Imports Down 17.7%, UK CPI Coming Up - Oct 13, 2015
The absence of US traders kept the dollar on weak footing, as traders continued to price in weaker odds of a Fed liftoff before the end of the year. Over the weekend, IMF leaders urged central bank heads to maintain their accommodative monetary policy in order to reduce the risk of a global market crash. For today, only the NFIB small business index and the federal budget balance are due from the US economy, both of which are not likely to spur any strong moves from the currency.
The euro was off to a weak start for the week but managed to recover against some of its higher-yielding rivals. There have been no reports out of the euro zone yesterday, although ECB policymakers are still trying to downplay the ongoing slowdown in its top economies. For today, Germany’s final CPI and WPI readings are due, with weak data likely to revive speculations of further easing. The German ZEW economic sentiment index is also on the docket and it might show a drop from 12.1 to 6.8.
The pound returned some of its recent gains, as traders are reducing their exposure ahead of today’s CPI release. The UK CB leading index and the BRC retail sales monitor showed decent rebounds yesterday, yet pound traders seem wary about the upcoming inflation reports. The headline CPI is slated to stay flat while the core CPI could improve to 1.1% from the earlier 1.0% reading. Stronger than expected data could revive hopes of BOE tightening early next year.
The franc gave up ground to most of its peers in recent trading sessions, as the higher odds of ECB easing could spur SNB intervention. The Swiss PPI is up for release today and a 0.1% decline in producer prices is eyed, following the earlier 0.7% decline.
The yen managed to regain a bit of ground as Japanese banks were closed for the holiday yesterday. Japanese consumer confidence and preliminary machine tool orders data are up for release today with the former slated to fall from 41.7 to 41.6 and the latter likely to show another negative figure, possibly boosting yen pairs once more.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up their recent wins when risk appetite seemed to weaken in the forex market. Oil prices were weaker for the day, forcing the Loonie to retreat, yet the Aussie and Kiwi struggled to stay afloat. In Australia, the NAB business confidence figure improved from 1 to 5, reflecting stronger optimism. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today, although the latest Chinese trade balance indicated a 17.7% slump in imports to show weaker demand.
To contact the reporter of the story: Samuel Rae at samuel@forexminute.com
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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.