Daily FX Trading Review: Weak NZ Trade Balance Drags Kiwi Down – Aug 26, 2014

Daily FX Trading Review: Weak NZ Trade Balance Drags Kiwi Down - Aug 26, 2014

The comdolls showed signs of weakness recently as FX trading risk appetite weakened in favor of the dollar and the yen. Earlier in today’s Asian FX trading session, New Zealand released a weaker than expected trade balance, reflecting a shortfall of 692 million NZD and an 11.3% monthly decline in exports. There are no reports lined up from the comdoll economies for the rest of today’s trading sessions, which could leave these higher-yielders sensitive to risk sentiment and commodity prices.

The US dollar retreated to some of its major FX trading counterparts in recent trading, allowing a few weekend gaps to get filled. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, with new home sales coming in at 412K instead of the estimated 426K figure. The good news though is that the previous month’s reading was upgraded to 422K. For today, durable goods orders data are due, with the headline report set to show a 7.4% gain and the core report likely to print a 0.5% gain. CB consumer confidence data is also due and it might show a dip from 90.9 to 89.1.

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The euro weakened to the yen and was unable to take advantage of dollar weakness, as German Ifo business climate came in weaker than expected. The figure dropped from 108.00 to 106.3, reflecting a downturn in business confidence. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, giving euro pairs a chance to recover from their recent FX trading declines or stay in consolidation.

The pound made a quick bounce in recent FX trading, with no reports released from the UK yesterday. Only the BBA mortgage approvals release is lined up for today and it might show a gain from 43.3K to 44.2K, reflecting a pickup in the UK housing industry. A weaker than expected report might be negative for the pound though while a strong reading could push for more gains among pound pairs.

The franc recovered from its recent selloff and managed to close its weekend gap to the dollar, even though there were no reports released from Switzerland. There are still no reports due from the country today, leaving franc pairs sensitive to risk sentiment for most of the day.

The yen made a few rebounds recently but these were probably spurred by profit-taking and FX trading market corrections. There are no reports from Japan recently, as BOJ Governor Kuroda’s openness to further easing could keep the yen weak. Recall that the BOJ head spoke of possibly adjusting policy if inflationary pressures weaken, a shift from their previous stance wherein policymakers insisted that the economy would stay resilient.

To contact the reporter of the story: James Brennan at james@forexminute.com

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.