Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Nov 23, 2017

The US dollar slumped against its peers when the FOMC minutes focused mostly on weak inflation concerns. In particular, the transcript indicated that many participants worried that inflation would run below the 2% target much longer than expected, hinting at a less aggressive pace of tightening for 2018.
The UoM consumer sentiment index also saw a downgrade while inflation expectations were revised lower. US banks are closed for the Thanksgiving holidays so lower liquidity and higher volatility for major pairs are eyed.
The euro drew some support from rumors of ECB tightening while data also turned out slightly better than expected. The consumer confidence index ticked up from -1 to 0 instead of holding steady and reflecting pessimism. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due from Germany and France today, and stronger than expected figures could boost hopes of ECB hikes next year.
The pound took hits as Hammond announced downgraded growth forecasts released during the Autumn Forecast Statement and increased borrowing estimates for the next few years to offset the impact of Brexit. However, the currency stabilized when he also reassured that support will be provided to help the economy weather any uncertainties. The UK is scheduled to release its second estimate GDP for Q3 but no revisions to the earlier 0.4% estimate are expected.
The franc advanced against most of its peers even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. The currency appeared to be able to benefit from dollar weakness as it took a larger share of risk-off flows. There are still no reports out of Switzerland today but SNB head Jordan has a speech so franc bulls could be on edge.
The yen also rallied on the heels of dollar weakness, despite the lack of top-tier data from Japan. Lower US bond yields also contributed to yen demand. There are no reports due from Japan today as banks are closed for the holiday.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi mostly shrugged off downbeat retail sales data as analysts had already predicted a slowdown on account of the end of the rugby season. Headline retail sales rose 0.2% versus the projected 0.4% uptick while core retail sales advanced 0.5% versus 0.9%. Crude oil popped higher on a larger than expected draw of 1.9 million barrels in EIA crude oil stockpiles. Canadian retail sales figures are lined up next.
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