Daily Forex Fundamental Analysis – Dec 13, 2017

The US dollar crawled slowly higher, drawing support from positive FOMC expectations and more progress in tax reform. Senator Coryn suggested that they are making progress and could get the deal done before Christmas but Senator Rand signaled that he won’t be voting for the tax bill. US PPI turned out stronger than expected, with the headline figure up another 0.4% while the core reading posted a higher 0.3% gain. CPI readings are due next but the Fed’s updated economic projections during their statement could take center stage.
The euro retreated against most of its counterparts as ECB head Draghi did not sound as hawkish as expected in his speech. Euro zone data also turned out weaker than expected, with the German ZEW index down from 18.7 to 17.4 versus the 17.9 consensus and the region’s figure down from 30.9 to 29.0. German final CPI and WPI are lined up, ahead of the region’s employment change and industrial production numbers.
The pound jumped upon seeing stronger than expected inflation reports but quickly retreated. Headline CPI is up from 3.0% to 3.1% instead of holding steady as expected and core CPI is steady at 2.7%. PPI was also stronger than expected but RPI and HPI fell short. Jobs data is due next and a smaller gain of 0.4K claimants is eyed compared to the earlier 1.1K increase. Also, the average earnings index is projected to advance from 2.2% to 2.5% to reflect stronger wage growth and more upside inflationary pressure.
The franc had a mixed run as it reacted to currency-specific factors. The currency was higher against the euro but caved to the comdolls as there were no reports from Switzerland yesterday. There are still no reports lined up today so market sentiment could push the franc around.
The yen was in a weak spot as the dollar took most of the safe-haven flows. Japanese core machinery orders turned out stronger than expected with a 5.0% gain versus the estimated 3.1% increase. There are no other reports due from Japan next so the yen could take its cue from bond yields and dollar price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie raked in more gains thanks to higher gold prices while the Loonie drew a bit of a lift from stronger oil on the heels of another pipeline shutdown. Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment index also posted an impressive 3.6% rebound after the earlier 1.7% drop. In New Zealand, the appointment of next RBNZ head Orr turned out bullish for the currency. There are no major reports from the comdolls today.