Daily Financial Markets Update: Crude Oil Aiming for $50?


Supply disruptions in Nigeria and Venezuela have led to forecasts of lower oil output and less downside pressure on prices. Long-time oil bear Goldman Sachs was prompted to revise their outlook on the commodity, predicting that it would reach $50/barrel by the second half of the year instead of their earlier $20/barrel forecast. WTI crude oil popped up by nearly 4% to $48.23/barrel while Brent crude oil is up to $49.27/barrel.

USDCAD retreated from a high of 1.2911 to 1.2853, CADJPY rallied from a low of 84.36 to a high of 84.82, EURCAD is breaking below the 1.4550 level, GBPCAD is down to 1.8612, and AUDCAD is down to .9450.

Gold prices failed to benefit from the rally in commodities after renowned trader John Paulson reportedly slashed his bullish bets on the precious metal for the third time this year. Gold retreated to $1,278/ounce after previously trading just a shade above $1,300/ounce.

AUD pops higher after RBA minutes, NZ GDT auction next

The Reserve Bank of Australia released their latest monetary policy meeting minutes, highlighting labor costs concerns and fears about a slowdown in China. Over the weekend, the world’s second largest economy printed weaker than expected results for its retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment reports. The RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% in their policy statement, citing weaker inflation forecasts.

AUDUSD surged from the .7250 area to a high of .7352, AUDJPY is back up to the 80.00 levels, EURAUD retreated below the 1.5400 support area, and GBPAUD is down to 1.9694. New Zealand has several top-tier reports lined up, including the quarterly inflation expectations figure and the PPI reports. The Global Dairy Trade auction will also be held and another decline in prices could spur renewed speculations of an RBNZ rate cut next month.

GBP in focus for UK CPI reports

The pound drew a bit of support from surveys indicating a slightly wider lead for anti-Brexit voters, as remarks from BOE Governor Carney on the repercussions of exiting the EU appear to have influenced sentiment. GBPUSD bounced from 1.4350 to its current 1.4480 levels, GBPJPY is up to 157.75, EURGBP broke below .7850 down to .7815, and GBPCHF is up to 1.4128.

Later in the week, UK jobs data is due, along with the UK retail sales release. An increase of 4K claimants is expected for April but of greater interest will be the projected slump from 1.8% to 1.7% in the average earnings index.

Previous articleUSDJPY Forex Forecast – Bears Ready to Return?
Next articleDaily FX Trading Update: GBP in Focus with UK CPI, NZ GDT Auction Next
Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.