BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Which Way to Break Out?

BTCUSD has been unable to show clear direction recently, moving inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on its 1-hour time frame. Price is currently testing the triangle support and could be due for a move lower, likely taking it down to the next floor near $555.
On the other hand, an upside breakout could lead to a move up to the triangle highs at $580-585. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside, which means that a break lower could be more likely to take place.
Meanwhile, stochastic is already in the oversold region, reflecting exhaustion among sellers. Once this oscillator starts moving higher, buyers could take control of price action and lead to a test of or breakout from the triangle resistance. Meanwhile, RSI is heading south so BTCUSD price could follow suit.
Medium-tier reports from the US have printed stronger than expected results but those didn’t seem enough to revive rate hike hopes for September, especially since the FOMC minutes revealed that policymakers preferred to be prudent in waiting for more data before adjusting policy.
This bias could keep a lid on the dollar’s gains and keep risk appetite supported, as investors foresee stronger business investment and consumer spending while borrowing costs remain low for much longer. This could add support to BTCUSD price gains while traders seek higher returns on riskier holdings.
However, a return in risk aversion or stronger evidence that the Fed can still afford to hike interest rates before the end of the year could revive dollar strength, leading to a break lower and further declines for bitcoin price.
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