BTCUSD Price Technical Analysis – Which Way to Break Out?



BTCUSD price has formed higher lows and lower highs on its 1-hour time frame, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price is approaching the peak of the formation, signaling that a breakout is imminent.

But which way will it go?

Price is currently testing the resistance of the triangle so a bounce to the bottom could still be seen. Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions so sellers could take control from here. RSI is also heading south so BTCUSD price could follow suit.

Increased selling pressure could spur a move below the triangle support and a larger drop to the bottom of the formation at $520. Stronger bearish momentum could lead to declines until the previous year high of $500.

On the other hand, a return in buying pressure could lead to a rally to the latest highs at $600 or beyond. This move was recently spurred by an influx of Chinese investors putting money on BTCUSD as the government has been weakening the local currency and imposing capital controls.

For today, the US NFP release could serve as a catalyst for BTCUSD price breakouts. Analysts are expecting to see a 159K increase in hiring, lower than the earlier 160K gain. Average hourly earnings are projected to show a 0.2% uptick, underscoring Yellen’s view that wage growth is lagging.

Stronger than expected results could reinforce speculations of a June Fed rate hike, thereby driving dollar demand. On the other hand, downbeat data could dash hopes of tightening in June or July and trigger a selloff for the dollar, with a corresponding upside breakout for BTCUSD.

Risk-taking ahead of the weekend could also influence BTCUSD price action, as some investors might be keen on pocketing their gains from the latest rallies.

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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.