BTCUSD bounced off the long-term triangle resistance and went on to test support as expected. The bottom of the triangle held as a floor, putting price back on track to test the resistance again.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so bulls are in control, possibly leading to a climb up to the $420 resistance or much higher. Stronger buying pressure might even lead to a move past the triangle resistance, sparking a longer-term uptrend for BTCUSD.
Stochastic is on the move up so there may be enough bullish momentum left. Similarly, RSI is heading north so BTCUSD price might follow suit. On the other hand, a return in selling momentum could lead to another test of the triangle support at $380 or perhaps a break lower.
Last Friday, strong jobs data from the US initially spurred a strong dollar rally, enough to take BTCUSD down to the triangle support. However, profit-taking quickly took place and risk appetite kicked in, leading to a bounce. Commodity prices continued to advance led by crude oil, as the declining number of US oil rigs eased fears of a supply glut.
There are no major reports due from the US economy today but FOMC officials have speeches lined up, and their biases for monetary policy could mean more volatility for the US dollar. Indications that they’re still willing to hike rates this month could lead to a downside triangle break for BTCUSD while cautious remarks could keep the rally going until the triangle resistance.
Other event risks include headlines on the ongoing discussions among oil producers regarding an output freeze and Brexit updates. Reports that spur more uncertainty and risk aversion among investors could be negative for BTCUSD.
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