BTCUSD has been trending higher but seems unable to sustain its recent rally. Looking at the 1-hour time frame shows that price is stalling at a short-term channel resistance, which lines up with the mid-channel area of interest of the longer-term ascending range on the 4-hour chart.
The 100 SMA is slightly below the 200 SMA for now so the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the channel resistance around $425 could hold and take BTCUSD down to support around $417-420.
RSI is on the move down so BTCUSD could follow suit. Similarly, stochastic is heading south from the overbought region so a selloff to support might be due. However, if buyers regain ground, they could push for an upside break of resistance and a rally up to the top of the larger channel to $435-440.
Market risks include US earnings releases throughout the week, as results have been mixed so far. Still, US equities have closed higher yesterday on the heels of an oil price rally spurred by a report indicating that Russia and Saudi already struck a deal to freeze output.
Risk appetite gave the higher-yielding BTCUSD a boost yesterday and this could carry on if market sentiment does not change. However, lack of confirmation or denial from either Saudi Arabian or Russian officials on the rumored production cap could force oil and other riskier assets to return their recent gains.
Other catalysts today include the release of US retail sales data and PPI readings. Headline retail sales could be up by 0.1% while core retail sales could see a 0.4% gain. Weaker than expected data might mean more losses for the dollar while strong readings could push BTCUSD down.