BTCUSD Price Technical Analysis – Ready for a Big Move?

Daily Financial Markets Update: Risk Off on Chinese Trade, Oil Supply Glut

Daily Financial Markets Update: Risk Off on Chinese Trade, Oil Supply Glut

BTCUSD is still stalling in the area of interest shown yesterday, as traders might be waiting for this week’s set of top-tier events. There are three central bank announcements scheduled starting today and any changes to their policies or biases might have a strong impact on market sentiment and bitcoin price.

Among the central bank decisions, only the ECB is widely expected to ease monetary policy and share a downbeat view, possibly dragging down higher-yielding assets like BTCUSD. Meanwhile, the BOC and the RBNZ might keep policy unchanged, although the latter just kept the door open for a rate cut in their previous statement.

Other factors keeping risk appetite in check include the downbeat Chinese trade balance yesterday, as this confirmed the slowdown in demand. The buildup in crude oil stockpiles pushed prices back down, preventing BTCUSD from heading any higher.

BTCUSD is moving sideways for now but a break higher could still encounter resistance at the falling trend line and 61.8% Fib. This is also around the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point and a former support at $420, which might hold as resistance moving forward.

Stochastic is heading down from the overbought level so sellers are taking control of price action. This could take BTCUSD down to the next support at the previous lows or $380, with stronger bearish momentum likely to trigger a downside break.

On the other hand, a strong return in risk appetite could lead to a move past the Fibs and the $420 area of interest, spurring a longer-term climb for BTCUSD back to the $440-450 near-term ceiling or up to $465, which also held as resistance earlier in the year.

The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA while RSI has room to go north, both indicating that buyers could stay in control.


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Samuel Rae is an active retail trader across a variety of assets, including currencies, stocks and commodities and the author of Diary of a Currency Trader (Harriman House). His personal strategy focuses primarily on classical technical charting patterns with a fundamentally supportive bias, combined with a strict, risk management-driven approach to entries and exits. He is an Economics graduate from Manchester University, UK.