BTCCNY is still on the decline as traders have been booking profits off their recent long positions. Price might have its sights set on the next visible area of interest around 3800.00 which might hold as near-term support. The 100 SMA is above the 200 SMA for now but a downward crossover looks imminent. This could bring more bearish pressure to the mix, allowing the selloff to carry on.
On the other hand, RSI is on the move up to show that buyers are trying to regain control. Similarly, stochastic is heading north so BTCCNY might follow. If so, a quick pullback to the 4500-4600 levels could ensue. If buying pressure is strong enough, price might even climb back to the latest highs at 5130.00.
For now, it looks like the nearing EU referendum is convincing majority of market players to lock in their gains on their BTCCNY trades over the month, as the outcome of the vote could lead to unprecedented volatility. This means that price could spike around, possibly triggering stops and margin calls in the process.
Brexit polls are suggesting a narrow victory for the remain camp but it might still be too close to call since a large number of folks are undecided. A vote to leave the EU could bring a lot of uncertainty, not just for the UK, but for the rest of the global economy. This could spur speculations of a recession, leading to a flight to safety.
On the other hand, a vote to stay in the EU could bring risk appetite back, drawing traders to equities and currencies once more. Still, Chinese investors are wary about yuan weakness and possible capital controls so they might leave some funds in bitcoin and keep prices propped up.